Billionaire Arthur Hayes Analyzes State of Crypto Markets, Says Several Major Players Have No More Bitcoin To Sell

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes is trying on the chance that Bitcoin could have already printed a bear market backside, saying that three key gamers have seemingly run out of BTC to promote.

In a brand new weblog publish, the crypto veteran identifies three investor teams that had been compelled to half with their Bitcoin troves this 12 months as a result of misuse of leverage: centralized lending and buying and selling corporations, Bitcoin miners and atypical speculators.

centralized corporations first, Hayes says these establishments have seemingly unloaded most of their BTC after the collapse of crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) and Sam Bankman-Fried’s buying and selling agency Alameda Analysis.

“When these two corporations [Alameda and 3AC] obtained into bother, what did we see? We noticed giant transfers of essentially the most liquid cryptos – Bitcoin (WBTC in DeFi) and Ether (WETH in DeFi) – to centralized and decentralized exchanges that had been then bought. This occurred through the large transfer down…

I can’t demonstratively show that every one Bitcoin held by these failed establishments was bought through the a number of crashes, however it does look as in the event that they tried their greatest to liquidate essentially the most liquid crypto collateral they may proper earlier than they went underneath.

The [centralized lending firms] and all giant buying and selling corporations already bought most of their Bitcoin. All that’s left now are illiquid sh**cash, non-public stakes in crypto firms, and locked pre-sale tokens.”

As for Bitcoin miners, Hayes says they’ve been web promoting their BTC because the first credit score crunch in June when the king crypto dropped beneath $20,000 for the primary time in over 18 months.

“They need to do that in an try to remain present on their large fiat debt masses. And in the event that they don’t have debt, they nonetheless have to pay electrical energy payments – and because the worth of Bitcoin is so low, they should promote much more of it to maintain the ability operational.”

Supply: Arthur Hayes / glassnode

In relation to atypical speculators, Hayes says he’s trying on the quantity of open curiosity (OI) on lengthy and brief contracts to gauge the extent of hypothesis within the markets. Based on him, the all-time excessive in OI coincided with the all-time excessive of BTC. The OI additionally plunged because the market fell, suggesting that speculators had been worn out.

Supply: Arthur Hayes / glassnode

Hayes concludes by saying he’s not 100% sure whether or not Bitcoin’s present bear market low round $15,900 is absolutely the backside, however he says BTC bounced from that stage due “to the cessation of compelled promoting introduced on by a credit score contraction.” He additionally notes that the whole lot is cyclical.

“What goes down will go up once more.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is altering arms for $17,170.

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Featured Picture: Shutterstock/kersonyanovicha/David Sandron


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